Showing posts with label Strategy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Strategy. Show all posts

Saturday, September 6, 2008

Centralslav Culture

A new perspective is needed if Centralslavia is to exist. Such an alliance will be short lived if the only purpose is diplomatic or economic. A change in orientation and perspective is needed.

To simply imitate American popular culture (or German, or whatever) is not going to help. The matter must be one of values. What do other regions value? What do you value?

This does not mean that one should express disdain for all that is Western or Eastern. It means that the actual values of the societies viewed are not the same as the ideals they talk about. This is not often intentional. Most Americans say they value education. When asked if they would walk five miles to school with their child so the child could go to a good school and not a poor one, they would not. The actual values of Centralslavia would hopefully be closer to what the West was like before the post WWI nihilism.

Life is suffering, that does not deride the beauty and hope of life. Life is hard, do not denigrate those who labor. The way of life and the assumptions about responsibility and respect for others needs to be where Centralslavia becomes a beacon of civilization. The West has grown weary of being civilized and is too lazy to stand up for it or even be it. Russia is tired and its leaders will not find the path to a common state of civilization easy. The nihilism of Moscow and St. Petersburg are making things hard to adjust.

Centralslavia has the benefit of historically being more organized than Russia but the suffering under Communism ironically preserved a more sensible outlook that was wiped out in the West by essentially Marxists of a more radical approach than either Stalinism or Maoism. Western Communists are not real Communists but madmen. Eastern Communism was tempered by the realities of life.

Concepts that the West lost are the ability of Centralslavia to exploit. Craftsmanship is to make creating a thing of grace, elegance, and efficiency. To make labor not a drudgery but a joy. Family is not a random biological pairing but a thing to be looked after. The husband and father must look after and listen to his wife and the same to his children. Men are men, Women are women, and children need not ape a hyper-sexualized culture. Life is to be treasured at all ages. The cult of youth is not a good one. The elderly have a different perspective and their wisdom must be cherished.

Religion now in parts of Centralslavia is ignored. People do not go to church nor do they think about moral issues. That must change. If it were to change, Centralslavia would have a major advantage over Western knee-jerk reactions. The Western lack of detail in approaching things is the key weakness of the West, it can be more easily avoided by Centralslavia. The concept of a classical education, detail, study, and debate needs to be brought back. These will bring good governance and that brings most good things.

The important thing is not what you do when you think, it is what you do when youdon't think.

Saturday, August 30, 2008

Thoughts on Georgia

The media response in even the more analytical organizations is disappointing. The assumptions the organizations are relying upon are that the Georgian government is trustworthy, the Russian Government is not, that International Law dictates that infringement into a country is impermissible, and that the US must back the Georgians.

Most of these (not all) assumptions are wrong. There has clearly been a conflict there for nearly two decades as a result of both pre-existing and communist inspired population movements. Georgians and Ossetians do not have a pleasant history together nor do the Abkhaz. The conflict has involved people “voluntarily” leaving after their houses have been torched and life made unpleasant in other ways in both Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Georgians have not been models of good behavior either and many incidents of villages taken by Georgian troops suffering the same fate.

Clearly the conflict is bitter. Let us bear in mind the maxim that “truth is the first casualty of war” and trust nothing claimed by either of the sides unless independent verification can be obtained. Sadly, this day in age interprets “independent verification” to be journalists at a government press conference or materials supplied by a government influenced organization. The Georgians are better able to influence the Western diplomats and journalists by interacting more frequently with it and without the Communist baggage and Russian support that isolates South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Georgia’s government is not a neutral party and still should not be trusted implicitly. Journalists however are parroting the government line due to a convergence of ideological fear of Russia, sympathy for the perceived underdog, and material concerns of physical safety and the need to deliver a story.

Neither Russia nor Georgia are democracies. Putin clearly displays himself as the power in a thinly veiled autocracy. Shalikashvili is more refined and while not much more democratically minded, knows how to play upon the West’s expectations and hopes. Rarely do Westerners think but rather emote when several buzzwords are detected. Democracy is one of them. By repeating the term to journalists and diplomats, and using phrases that sound as if they came from a liberal democracy, a false impression can be conveyed. Only actually investigating the situation on the ground would make such a strategy unwise as democratic rhetoric uncoupled with actual circumstances on the ground irritates some people.

The irrational trust in the Georgians is coupled by a semi-rational fear of Russia. Russia is acting in accordance to national interests that sometimes collide with those of Western countries or even of the entire West. The Russian government is not the most honest government around to use more than a little understatement. Ukraine suffered a bout of Russian efforts to keep it in Moscow’s orbit with the various cultural, economic, and security concerns that entails. The means to achieve it were embarrassingly thuggish by the Russians. Russia however does have concerns that few would dispute in principle. The lack of rights of the Russian minority in Estonia, the expansion of NATO in what is clearly an offensively placed series of alliances and bases directed towards Russia, and the fates of Russians and pro-Russian groups outside Russia.

The right of self-determination invoked by the republics who left the Soviet Union should apply to those who do not want to be part of the new states is the Russian position. This is a logical argument on behalf of Russian interests. Georgia’s interest is in the viability of its state and independence and for that, territory controlled is vital. Georgia’s continued survival and independence gives an imperative for territory even at the price of locals rebelling and Moscow taking a renewed interest. As Georgia has been backed by the West, backing down would humiliate the leaders and people who back Georgia. The credibility of Western force and intervention lies in not backing down and acting. The US has an informal alliance with Georgia and thus must back it.

All parties are acting on rational strategizing on the state level. The concern in that unlike the partially constrained Russian media, the Western media is free but stupid. Instead of a strategic conflict of interests and strategies with moral implications, the situation is seen a pure democratic Georgia against an unprincipled Russian invasion. Given the amount of effort the South Ossetians had to employ to get Russian to back against increasing Georgian efforts to regain control of the territory, Russia was acting on principles of non-intervention more that supposed. The South Ossetians were players just as much as Russia.

McCain’s fury at Russia’s actions in defeating the Georgian assault on the anti-Georgian statelets and invasion of the rest of Georgia stems from his believing Georgian and US propaganda. Geo-politics is nothing to be ashamed of. Sadly in a society the prizes idealism, rational strategy must be sugarcoated in ideals to be palatable. In worse cases, outright lies are told. The effect is to make policy-makers fanatical and make policy erratic and unpredictable for those being interacted upon.

International Law is generally a fiction. Actors do what they can in cases of deep interest even beyond what they would do if the cases were not as important to them. Law may dictate relations between less interested parties but if concerns are raised, law becomes disregarded. Even still, International Law has become a concept in flux. The NATO backing of the UCK (Kosovo Liberation Army) and war against Yugoslavia was somehow mandated by international law while the Russian backing of South Ossetia and invasion of Georgia was impermissible?

International Law is often appealed to but as the defining nature of the state is that it is sovereign, there is no real body of law governing them save what states apply to themselves. There are treaties and accepted concepts but these are insufficient basis to pronounce judgment upon a situation where there are not treaties.

Given the power of Russia, constraining an increasing hostile Russia is the main US strategy. The various actions of the Clinton diplomatic legacy shattered a tenuous trust and respect between the US and Russia and the erratic fanaticism of the Clinton lackeys has made Russia distrustful of the US. Any ability to repair the relationship is unlikely without a larger threat that requires clear thinking. Georgia has sought the US as an Ally wheras Russia has disdained the US. The US has accepted the allegiance of Georgia and the new relationship must be acted upon even when one party is wrong. The value of allying with and accepting the direction of the US relies on benefits received from such a relationship. Those benefits are nowhere more extreme than in a war. Given Georgia’s defeat and Russia’s strength, the US can only offer peri-military aid and diplomatic support and condemnation of Russia. US credibility requires that the US back Georgia.

With this in mind, let us act rationally and not believe the Georgia or media propaganda the Georgia did not commit atrocities (ethnic expulsions occurred on all sides) and even murders (unarmed villages got shelled). We must support Georgia because they are allies, not because we are idiots.

Saturday, July 21, 2007

Considerations on “liberation struggles”

The 20th Century has been noted as the most violent in History. The majority of the deaths have been civilian incurred in the course of violent struggles to liberate their land from foreign rule, “imperialism”, “exploitation”, poverty, racism, and other assorted causes considered liberation struggles.

Yet, for all the protestations of desire to help the people, such struggles have been the most total and dehumanizing of all struggles. The struggle to free Russia from (alternatively) Capitalistic exploitation/Bolshevist terror during the Russian Civil War was extraordinarily brutal and even Russians considered themselves to be less valuable human beings than Westerners. The dehumanization and conflict of the Civil War made the brutality of Stalin’s deportations, executions, and the purges possible.

The liberation struggles in Latin America were also noted for brutality and especially those in Africa. The struggle against the brutal Belgian rule over Congo was more brutal that the very rule the proposed liberation from. The Vietminh(alternatively VietCong) was brutal in its treatment of government teachers, mayors and anyone associated with the government. The moderation that was claimed to exist did not reach 1975 when the Communist government imprisoned 300,000 people who had worked for the ROV government and their families. The aftermath was a disaster for the South.

The most accepted liberation struggle in recent history has been that of the ANC to replace the Afrikaner Government in Pretoria. Yet after the fall of Apartheid, the civil service has lost its professionalism, the most skilled are leaving the country (which remains the economic superpower of Africa), and the military was completely purged with the attendant loss of discipline and quality. This may be an acceptable price if democracy is the result but the farm murders (1,500+ since 1992), and devastating crime rates, and the system of racial preferences known as Affirmative Action are undermining the unitary state and the overwhelming loyal vote for the ANC makes political competition difficult.

Another but less volatile and more ridiculous is the struggle in the US over “White Privilege”. Jesse Jackson and Al Sharpton explain the relative failures of US Blacks on a legacy of slavery and justify antagonism and even incite violence to right it. The consequences can be immediate and tragic (the Crown Heights Pogrom) or slow and poisonous as the government of Mayor Marion Barry (D.C. is barely recovering).

The problem seems to be that when the Oppressor/Liberator dichotomy is used, other factors and gradations are ignored and one is forced into one camp or the other. Gratitude is also expected to the liberator and this allows the liberator to ignore the promptings of common sense and allows dangerous flights of fancy like Julius Nyerere in Tanzania.